Monday, October 13, 2008

From Bulls to Bear

Is the time series analysis the only tool at the disposal of analysts?
When crude was at 140 USD per barrel, analyst had predicted a price of 220 USD per barrel and now with markets in turmoil it predicts a price of 50 USD per barrel.


To my mind 50 USD scenario is as unlikely to play as the 220 USD per barrel scenario.
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